Economics versus Politics and Pundits

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(Edited)

"The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups."
—Henry Hazlitt, Economics in One Lesson

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The 2024 election cycle has already been in full swing for months here in the United States. Republicans bicker with one another on stage, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is vying to displace the dotard Joe Biden, and various minor parties are eagerly clamoring for their 1% of the electorate. One of the chief points of contention is the economy. How bad is it really, and what should be done to fix it if something is wrong?

In most countries, central banks and treasury departments collude to fix prices on lending and manipulate the liquidity of the money supply in order to keep up a facade of prosperity. However, this facade is crumbling. Just a few weeks ago, perennial false prophet Paul Krugman assured us, "The economic data have been just surreally good. Even optimists are just stunned by how quickly and how painlessly inflation has come down. No hint of a recession, at least so far. [...] This is a Goldilocks economy." If only he hadn't said the same things in 2007 right before everything collapsed.

At least most of the folks who want to challenge Biden recognize there is an undercurrent of discontent and economic stress, but few (if any) have any real understanding of how markets and money actually work, how we got to where we are now, or how to navigate out of the morass to solid ground.

For example, RFK Jr. wants to subsidize loans in order to help the economically disadvantaged buy homes. Great! Except not. This would function as a bailout for bankers and Blackrock, ensuring buyers by subsidizing demand at peak prices now, and then leave the poor holding the bag when this housing market bubble inevitably bursts. If these new home buyers default, that burden falls on the taxpayers. Isn't this counterproductive even on a cursory examination? The Liberty Lockdown Podcast is hosted by someone with the real estate and property management experience to delve deeper still.


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And of course on the Republican side of the coin, there is much hubbub about immigration, trade, China, and war. All of it completely disregards any real economic or moral principles in favor of jingoistic nationalism. Vivek Ramaswamy is probably the least-bad of the bunch, but that is faint praise indeed. At least he seems seriously anti-war. 20 years of post-9/11 wars have cost the U.S. an estimated $8 trillion and have killed more than 900,000 people. All of that death and destruction is counted as part of the "economic recoveries" post-9/11 and post-2008 because the standard models count government spending no one would voluntarily fund as "productivity."

The people who make politics their career tend to believe reality can be changed legislatively. If they issue a command, society will respond as they wish. Unintended consequences like the exploding wealth gap, boom/bust business cycles, bubbles in various assets, inflation, and a domestic police state are accidental, and we just need a few more laws to achieve perfection. Economic laws rooted in individual human motivations and actions have no bearing on their calculus. If things go wrong, somehow we are to blame, and the political class just needs more power.

Most economics analysis fails Hazlitt's basic principle. The short-term intent is paramount. The long-term consequences are not even acknowledged, much less considered openly. Just do as you are told and don't ask questions. Freedom is slavery. War is peace. Debt is prosperity.

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18 comments
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I had considered giving you my predictions regarding the 2024 election, but it's not really pertinent. What is pertinent, however, is that you don't need to be an economist to notice that people are most prosperous when the government keeps its abnormally large nose out of the economy. Unfortunately, after the US government has kept an uninterrupted stranglehold on the economy for the past hundred years, I don't think anyone currently involved in politics has ever considered building a wall of separation between market and state.

Speaking of which, do you think that we need to abandon the word "capitalism," as Lewis Barton suggests, or try to reclaim the term as LiquidZulu suggests? I'm still on the fence in that regard.

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"Capitalism" has been used to describe everything from literal fascism to laissez-faire, resulting in lazy conflation of the two disparate ideas by midwits. The term has no real use, regardless of definitions and context being made clear by people involved in serious discussions. After all, since every economic system involves capital, idiots will insist anything is capitalism. And when we have many apparently serious people insisting the dollar has value because government demands it in taxes, we have no hope of any real monetary analysis either.

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Cool. I'm curious as to how many libertarians feel the same way as you and Barton. I'm also curious regarding the popularity of the words "agorism" and "voluntaryism." Personally, I lean more towards calling myself a "fourth positionist," but I haven't yet made it far enough into The Fourth Political Theory to make such a commitment.

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I like "agorism" because it opens a conversation about the agora and free markets in contrast to planned or manipulated economies. "Voluntaryism" is an awkwardly long word people tend to think just means "volunteering," but it does convey the idea of voluntary exchange and voluntary association as a fundamental principle. Of course, "anarchist" just means violence and disorder to most, and the media reinforces this stereotype at every opportunity in their capacity as apologists for the State. "Autarchism" and "panarchy" also have potential.

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I like "agorism" too. I also like to call myself an "anarcho-nationalist," because it really fucks with people's heads (unless they are from eastern Europe, of course).

Best case scenario, it starts a conversation about the fact that the "nation" (страна) and "State" (государство) are two completely different things.

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I'd still like to hear your predictions.

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I'd still give 2024 to Trump at this point, but a lot can happen in a year. I'll explain my reasoning, but I'll start with the Dems.

Assuming that RFK Jr is even allowed to live long enough to run, he'll easily split the Democrat vote; maybe he'll even pull off something that hasn't happened since 1912. Just like 1912, however, I don't see him winning in 2024. He's not going to get nearly enough exposure, a lot of Dem voters will just stay home because they don't know anyone worth voting for (just like 2016), he's not going to pull in very many Republican voters, and NO libertarian is ever going to vote for him. The DNC wanted Harris in 2020, but she couldn't win a primary even in her home state, so they went with Biden simply because of name recognition. Harris is still going to run in 2024, but Gavin Newsom has a better chance of winning. I'd love to see the DNC try to run Harris and then scream "muh soggy knees" when she comes in third place in the general election, and who knows, they might just be that stupid.

On the Republican side, Trump is still in the lead, and the establishment's relentless attempts to take him out have all failed. Short of assassinating him (which is going to be considerably harder to pull off than with RFK), I doubt they'll actually manage to get rid of Trump. Personally, I think Ramaswamy is the better option, and according to RNC polling, he's displaced DeSantis as the runner-up, despite having no prior political experience. According to aggregate polling, any of those three would be preferable to Biden, who insists that he's going to run again, even though no-one, not even Bill Maher, wants him to.

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Brilliant, Krugman would have an only fans page had he been born a woman, there should be a portmanteau specifically for him -"whoreconomist" perhaps?

Vivek is certainly among the least bad, it is cheering to see him pass up some of the GOP fossils in the polls.

Virtually everything that is subsidized becomes more expensive. It is not so long ago that a college student could pay for 9 months of tuition with a summer job.

We seem to be in a never ending race to devalue the dollar until is is meaningless, likely the only thing that has us saved us thus far is almost every other nation on Earth is engaged in the same foolishness.

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Just remember Gresham's Law and spend the dollar while saving crypto and precious metals. Circulate the bad money, stockpile something better.

Subsidies sound ever so benevolent. No one wants to recognize how they alter the demand for the subsidized service, and thus drive up costs. It's similar to how people can recognize that price controls are destructive, yet demand minimum wages and maximum interest rates without noticing the fundamental cognitive dissonance at play.

And then there's the hyperfixation on corporate profits. Sure, they're a bunch of greedy bastards sucking on the teat of government, but they also see the rising costs of reinvestment necessary to stay in business. I guarantee that money will not sit idle in someone's Scrooge McDuck swimming pool. Everyone wants to talk about redistributing profits, but goes quiet when businesses take losses like most small and medium businesses did during COVID.

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I was in Hawaii during Covid. 1000s of small businesses were destroyed. Landmark family-owned stores and restaurants went away forever.

Great writing here by the way - do you have any objection to me summarizing and linking this post in https://peakd.com/c/hive-182959/created "Politics and Reason" ?

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Copy, critique, share, improve, whatever. I favor the BipCot license for what I write. Attribution and links are always appreciated, of course.

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I wonder how many people are like my eldest who "should" be entering the workforce and trying to wrk out "what he wants to be when he grows up" but is currently feeling dispirited, disillusioned and directionless because he knows everything sucks and everything is a sham.

He thinks crypto is cringe though so I'm trying to convince him to come up with something better which he's attempting rather than wallowing (though I think a lot of people will be wallowing and blaming because that's infinitely easier than problem solving and possibly being the one to blame).

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We're facing a time of transition and challenge. The old model that past generations followed isn't viable. We need new business models, new money, and a way to subvert the status quo.

I would suggest learning a trade. Auto repair, welding, construction, machining, plumbing, or whatever other blue-collar job suits his inclinations. There's a shortage of skilled labor these days, so the pay is good and the training costs are low. Whether the economy rebounds or falls into a recession, practical skills will serve when degree inflation leaves others struggling.

But we also may be seeing digital opportunities, so I don't want to discount programming, cringe crypto, robotics/automation, or other tech jobs. Maybe he should seek being a digital nomad for a while before deciding on something definite.

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But do you have an idea of the right person to vote for either Joe Biden or Robert. F Kenedy

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(Edited)

Joe Biden has been involved in politics longer than I have been alive, and has been personally responsible for many of the most repressive and destructive governmental overreaches of the past several decades including foreign war crimes, arbitrary prohibitions and irrationally punitive crime bills. There are not enough vile words in all the languages of Earth for him.

In comparison. RFK Jr. comes from a political dynasty from a bygone era steeped in some nostalgia and a lot of corruption, he's an economic illiterate, and tends to favor a nanny state, but he is apparently far less belligerent at home and abroad. Of the two, I could argue he is a lesser evil, but that does not mean he is not evil, and remains conjecture.

However, this is all a moot point because I also challenge the premises that we need political rulers or that democracy is a legitimate means of promoting people to power. Elections are the political manifestation of the false choice and bandwagon fallacies. Representation is a myth. None of these men have the virtue or reason to lead me, and neither I nor my neighbor have a right to impose a ruler upon the other without their consent.

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Elections are going to be held here in Pakistan for three months and they have still kept Imran Khan in jail and this is the owner of the biggest party in Pakistan at the moment Imran Khan but he is still kept in jail. so that he can't win the election and here too the economy is very bad, people don't have money to eat, nor are they getting any good jobs, so people are living in a lot of trouble. And here every 15 days the price of oil is also increased.

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