Your House Is Not Your Asset. This Is About To Be Proven.

"House prices always go up."
"Your house is your biggest asset"

These, and other sayings, are common to hear from people. Especially people who make their living selling houses.

In 2008, both of these were completely shown to be false.
As many people found themselves underwater on the mortgages, and so many lost their houses.

You would think that the lies would have gone away, but they haven't.
People see 2008 as hickup i the market. "The market came back." "All is right in the world."

But, this time, everyone will know these lies to have been lies.
Suburban house prices are going to fall, and keep falling.

After that, a new idea of ownership will come into being.
These housing markets, mortgages, mortgage insurance, ownership, 5 feet between houses,… all of these will go away.

House prices are a based on how much mortgage you can afford. Your income x percentage of income you are allowed to spend on a house x the inverse of the interest rate.

Houses are kept at this maximum price because not enough houses are every allowed to be built. Few, if any starter homes are allowed to be built. So, there has always been a lack of houses on the market.

And since population was always growing, needing more houses, and the Fed kept lowering interest rates, and expanding what part of your salary you could spend on a mortgage, the prices just kept going up and up.

But what if all of these things reverse?

The Fed raises rates. Tightens requirements. And on top of this, the population declines?

Well then, the amount you can get for a home is going to go down.
If the population seriously declines, then the home prices are seriously going to go down.

If people decide that living in a city or suburb is a bad idea, like, life threateningly bad.
And/or cities stopped being places where you could easily go shopping, and buy food, go out to restaurants…

If these kinds of things happened, then the prices of suburban houses will drop precipitously.

House prices are going to fall. What the Fed is doing right now + demographics (boomers moving off) will make sure of that.

I believe that most suburban housing will be left abandoned.

• People will choose homesteads over suburban living.
• Cities will become fiery, especially after the food riots start.
• Martial law will make living is suburbs far less attractive.
• Businesses die, and hamburger places automate. No more jobs.
• The ice-age is upon us. If your house is not super insulated, it will cost to much to live in.

Or, basically, everything that is great about living in a city is about to flip.

And then we have the population decline.

• The VAXXX is still eating people. Turbo cancers and bloodclots are still going up.
• The boomers are going to move into care facilities or cemetery plots. That is 25% of the American population
• Another "novel virus" seems to be in the works.
• A lot of people are going to starve.

My calculations are that 50% of suburban houses will be vacant within 10 years.

Or, basically, if you want a house, find an empty one and move in. Just don't burn the place down to keep yourself warm. That kinda defeats the purpose.

Suburban houses will, in most places, become unsellable. They may even become legally untenable to prove you are the owner. (If there are no courts, or few courts, and few police, then how do you prove you own a place and kick out the interlopers?

And so, many suburban homes may become unsellable, simply because you cannot prove title, or transfer it. So, what would another person pay you for?

So many of the points in this blog we all know are coming.

We know the boomers are getting old. We know that the VAXXX is having a toll. Many of us even know that homesteads are where it is at.

It is just a matter of how many homes on the market is it before the market dies?
At what point is it a ghost town? At what point is flight from the area apparent?

My biggest piece is that people in the future will live in small communities they call families. And, we will have not-single family homes. We will have much better things that allow for privacy and togetherness while lowering heating costs.

This last piece is what really destroys the suburban house market. Everything else is just kicking it in the teeth.

All images in this post are my own original creations.